24-09-2018 23:49:53

Global Security Trends - Dr. Tomas Ries

Don’t miss this exclusive opportunity to find out how renowned academic Dr. Tomas Ries sees the future of the defense and security environment changing over the next 10-15 years. Dr. Ries will challenge you to thinking about future defense and security.
Arrangør: IDA Risk
Medarrangører: IDA Brandteknik, IDA Militærteknik

Don’t miss this exclusive opportunity to find out how renowned academic Dr. Tomas Ries sees the future of the defence and security environment changing over the next 10-15 years.

Drawing on his most recent research and in-depth analysis of geopolitical developments Dr Ries will challenge you to think differently about future defense and security. Latest trends and new frontiers in defense and security in Europe. How nations will need to adjust and adapt to constantly evolving threats. Key technologies enabling faster prediction and prevention. What defense and security will look like in 2030?

Dr. Tomas Ries is Senior Lecturer in Security and Strategy at the Swedish Defence University, Department of Security, Strategy and Leadership (ISSL), Division of Strategy.

Dr. Ries has worked with security studies since 1979. His three main interests are:

1. The globalising security environment and future trends.
2. The epistemological and practical challenges of the new security environment.
3. The essence of strategy and security.

We have asked Tomas Ries to come to Copenhagen and give a lecture on global security trends. The lecture will be given in two 45 min. periods with a half hour break allowing for refreshments and networking. The lecture will be in English, but Tomas speaks perfectly Swedish and understand very well Danish and Norwegian, so ask questions in the language you prefer

Part 1: DEEP ISSUES

1. What is Security?
○ Functioning Vital Life Systems.
○ What is ‘Functioning’?
○ What are our Vital Life Systems?
○ Outline of our six Vital Life Systems in three security dimensions

2. Global Trends:
○ Social Dimension: Three deep trends, six security consequences.
○ Functional Dimension: Two deep trends, five security consequences.
○ Ecological Dimension: Three deep trends, two deep security consequences.

3. Managing Insecurity
○ Two complements to plan-based security policy.

½ hour break – refreshments and networking


Part.2: IMMEDIATE ISSUES

1. Europe – Decline of the West
○ Socioeconomic decline of the west and political consequences
○ Partly failed integration and consequences
○ Transnational Revolutionary Movements and consequences

2. Russia – Prospects for War
○ Intent
○ Capability
- Conventional and nuclear
- Full Spectrum Warfare
○ Interests

Global Trends

1. Social Dimension:
○ Rising instability and conflicts within our societies, from the richest to the poorest parts of the world.
○ Increasing pressure from our three big transnational threats: Global Organised Crime; Transnational Revolutionary Movements; and Uncontrolled Human Flows.
○ The return of great power politics and the likelihood of great power wars.

2. Functional Dimension:
○ Extreme fragility of the hyper-effective global economy and the technological infrastructure on which it rests, both globally and nationally.
○ Existential threats from antagonistic attacks, especially from states, but also from transnational revolutionary movements.
○ Severe threats from global organized crime.
○ Severe threats from inherent weaknesses in the global economy and global technological infrastructure.
○ Existential threats from increasing ecological disruption, of which pandemics are the most severe.

3. Ecological Dimension:
○ Very slow problem of depleting non-renewable resources.
○ Rapid threat from damaging regional biotopes that provide renewable resources (air, water, arable land, fish, etc.)
○ Escalating threat from disrupting the global ecosystem (climate change, extreme weather, rising sea-levels, etc.)

Managing Insecurity

1. Plan-based preparations.
○ Foresee and modify or prepare for emerging threats. Current state paradigm (not private sector however!).

2. Agility
○ Rapid adaptation and improvisation to respond to surprising challenges and threats seen in the last minute. Very hard for states, private sector better. Hyper-complexity is the enemy of agility.

3. Resilience
○ Absorb the shock from totally surprising events that one does not see in time. Very hard for us all, not very pleasant, but crucial if we are to survive existential crises. Hyper-efficiency is the enemy of resilience.

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